The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Abstract. The enhanced warming trend and precipitation decline in the Mediterranean region make it a climate change hotspot. We compare projections of multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 6 (CMIP6) historical future scenario simulations to quantify impacts already changing region. In particular, we investigate changes temperature during 21st century following scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 for CMIP5 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 from CMIP6, as well HighResMIP high-resolution experiments. A model weighting scheme is applied obtain constrained estimates projected changes, which accounts performance inter-independence multi-model ensembles, using an observational ensemble reference. Results indicate robust significant over all seasons, ensembles vary between CMIPs, CMIP6 being that projects stronger warming. amplified with respect global mean mainly found summer. summer season can span 1.83 8.49 ∘C 1.22 6.63 considering three different 50 % inter-model spread by end century. Contrarily projections, show greater uncertainties spatial heterogeneity. However, large parts high emission (−49 −16 −47 −22 CMIP5). While there less disagreement than latter shows larger declines some regions. obtained trends weaker thereby reducing difference means 1.32 before 0.68 after weighting.